Forum:2015 Pacific typhoon season
Betting pools for this page January 01W.MEKKHALA Tropical Storm Mekkhala First storm of the WPac season, forecast to head west-northwest and possibly reach the Philippines in 4 days. Ryan1000 04:40, January 15, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Mekkhala (Amang) Now named by PAGASA, and expected to hit just north of where Haiyan hit in a day or two. Hopefully it won't be too strong before landfall, but this storm looks real nice on satellite imagery. Wouldn't surprise me if Mekkhala tries to intensify quickly before landfall. Ryan1000 01:23, January 17, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Mekkhala Almost dead...at least it didn't get too strong. Ryan1000 01:31, January 18, 2015 (UTC) February 02W.HIGOS Typhoon Higos Guess no one's a fan of the off-season for ATL and EPac 'cept for me, this is now a strong 935 mbar 115 mph cat 3 out to sea. Ryan1000 17:07, February 10, 2015 (UTC) March 03W.BAVI Tropical Storm Bavi Well out to sea (well, except for Micronesia), expected to become a cat 1 typhoon at some point in the long run. Ryan1000 20:11, March 11, 2015 (UTC) :Made landfall in Guam, not expected to become a typhoon anymore.--Isaac829 16:20, March 15, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Bavi Going once, going twice...gone. Ryan1000 01:09, March 19, 2015 (UTC) 04W.MAYSAK Tropical Storm Maysak Well, having just returned to Hurricane Wiki, I am quite surprised to see the insane activity 2015 has already produced, namely Eunice, Pam, and Higos. Anyway, the fourth storm of the WPAC is already here before April, and it is poised to become rather strong southwest of Guam. The JMA has named this Maysak (a Cambodian type of tree), and reports winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-min) and a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). Additionally, the agency predicts the system will become an STS by the month's end and a general motion toward the Philippines. Meanwhile, the JTWC notes Maysak's potential - most convection is confined to the northern quadrant with banding wrapping into the northern and eastern quadrants. Also, Dvorak estimates support winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-min) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). Motionwise, the JTWC forecasts Maysak to track westwards because of STR influence for the next 72 hours, before it turns more WNW due to the ridge interacting with a trough. This will bring it into lower shear, excellent outflow, and high SST's, prompting gradual intensification until the storm encounters drier air in the Philippine Sea, slowing down the strengthening. However, 100 knots (115 mph) (1-min) gusting to 125 knots (145 mph) is still good enough to give us our second "major" typhoon of the year - and a faster start than last year. Given this forecast verifies, I wonder what the rest of the year, both in the WPAC and worldwide, will give us. We shall see... AndrewTalk To Me 00:03, March 28, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Maysak Now a category 1 storm, forecast to become a category 4 in 2-3 days while moving through the islands south of Guam. It'll probably weaken and turn north before hitting the Philippines though. Ryan1000 10:30, March 29, 2015 (UTC) : Woah, jumped all the way up to 145 mph. If Maysak becomes a category 5 super typhoon, assuming by tomorrow, it'll be the 3rd earliest category 5 storm ever in the west pacific, after Ophelia of 1958 and Mitag of 2002. Ryan1000 20:10, March 30, 2015 (UTC) ::: And now it's 160 mph, strongest storm of the season and with a pressure of 905 mbars, it's the strongest typhoon ever recorded so early in the year. Micronesia is getting hammered by this thing and it could still be at least a cat 3 when it moves towards Luzon late this week or early next week. Ryan1000 19:13, March 31, 2015 (UTC) :::: Maysak is such a powerful and awesome-looking storm, that it brought me back to the wiki. Let's all hope that some sort of devastating disaster won't happen in Micronesia or the Philippines, although it shouldn't even be close to being Washi or Haiyan-bad. It's just a bit strange that we're seeing such a powerful system so early in the season, I'm guessing this might be a possible sign of an intense season to come (especially with the El Nino I've been hearing that is supposed to be strong this year). --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 22:07, April 1, 2015 (UTC) :::::: The El Nino is a bit...odd. It's expected to come but parts of the world where El Nino is supposed to deliver above-normal rainfall (such as California) haven't been getting it yet, and it's unfortunate. California's state legislature had to pass laws to restrict the amount of water people can use each day because of the shortage in the state. This is also an issue in other parts of the world, such as Brazil and their recent heavy droughts, but that's probably more man-made due to destruction of the amazon rainforest, and less due to climate change. Ryan1000 10:41, April 3, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Maysak (2nd time) Wow, that was simply incredible. Maysak exploded into the strongest March WPAC cyclone on record, and impressed even astronauts. Fortunately, for the Philippines, the typhoon has powered down significantly and sheared apart. Winds are currently at 45 knots (50 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. With landfall forecasted in the next 12 hours, Maysak should fluctuate little before striking Luzon, hopefully causing minor impacts. On the JTWC side, the storm is still a near-typhoon, citing the moderate shear offset by radial outflow, with winds of 60 knots (70 mph) (1-min) gusting to 75 knots (85 mph). As cold air from Taiwan, land interaction, and increasing shear all take over Maysak, it is evident its glory is history. AndrewTalk To Me 19:57, April 4, 2015 (UTC) 05W.HAISHEN Tropical Depression 05W This storm's going to do so much nothing.--Isaac829 20:40, April 3, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Haishen Well, Isaac, it did get named (if that counts)! Currently about a hundred miles north of Chuuk, Haishen (named for the Chinese god of the sea) has built up convection over the past couple of days. Winds are currently at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-min) with a pressure of 998 mbar (hPa) per the JMA, and 45 knots (50 mph) (1-min) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph) based on JTWC Dvorak estimates. As an equatorial ridge moves Haishen more westwards over the next day or so, it has a slight window to intensify to 50 knots (60 mph) (1- and 10-min) according to both agencies, with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa) and one-minute gusts of 65 knots (75 mph) before increasing shear prompts quick dissipation, perhaps within 72 hours as the JTWC calls. Unfortunately, it looks like the god of the sea will do little more than spin fish in the Pacific and give Chuuk a cloudy day. AndrewTalk To Me 20:07, April 4, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Haishen Died without doing any harm. Ryan1000 15:13, April 7, 2015 (UTC) 06W.NOUL Tropical Storm Noul New one in the WPac, though it's not strong now, it's forecast to be a cat 4 heading towards Luzon later this week. This one definitely bears watching. Ryan1000 20:20, May 4, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Noul Category 2 storm now, forecast to become a 4 in a few days. It could still hit northern Luzon as a very strong storm, but it could also recurve just before it makes landfall and head out to sea. Let's hope for the second scenario....Ryan1000 03:52, May 7, 2015 (UTC) : Looks like Noul is taking its time to intensify, now it's definitely gonna be hitting Luzon, either as a cat 3 where it is now, or a weak 4. The good news is it's rather small for a typhoon, so damage won't be widespread, on top of the fact that eastern Luzon isn't a really populated place, but it's still a storm to watch out for. Ryan1000 23:18, May 8, 2015 (UTC) : Cat 4, now. This is not good. leeboy100My Talk! 17:10, May 9, 2015 (UTC) 07W.DOLPHIN Tropical Depression 07W This one is much farther out to sea than Noul, and it's forecast to eventually become a typhoon heading towards Guam. This would be Dolphin if it's named. Ryan1000 03:52, May 7, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dolphin It may have been a small jump, but already, seven named storms have formed in the WPAC! When's the last time that's happened? Anywho, Dolphin, named after a Hong Kong mascot, has attained winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-min) per the JMA, with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). As spiral banding continues to wrap into Dolphin's core, the JTWC has upgraded its one-minute winds to 40 knots (45 mph), gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). Despite moderate VWS of 20 to 25 knots, a whopping 29C SST's should continue to fuel the storm's intensification. Although the JMA only foresees Dolphin reaching weak STS intensity, the JTWC predicts the storm will reach winds of 95 knots (110 mph) (1-min) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph) within the next five days. However, given the latter's weak intensity bias, I won't be surprised if the fourth major typhoon of the year arrives before May 15. Guam may have to watch out; the JTWC notes the STR could steer Dolphin close to the island within the next few days. Man, what a start to this season! AndrewTalk To Me 01:51, May 10, 2015 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Normally I'm one of the first to complain about starting this section so early in the season; however, we've already had five storms, at least one of which has a decent chance of retirement. So, without further ado... ;JMA *Mekkhala: 10% - Nothing to shake a stick at, but enough for retirement? Nah. *Higos: 0% - It was incredible to watch such a strong typhoon materialize in early February, but a fish is a fish is a fish. *Bavi: <1% - It did slightly more than nothing. *'Maysak:' 65% - The Philippines may have gotten off easy, but Micronesia was hit very hard by this storm. From Wikipedia: "Pacific Maritime Association administrator Melinda Espinosa said 'Most concrete structures withstood the fury but everything else was damaged.'" That does not sound good. Maysak was essentially a stronger Sudal; remember, Sudal was retired for the havoc it wreaked in Micronesia. Sudal didn't even claim any lives; Maysak killed 5. *Haishen: Wait, what? ;PAGASA *All names: 0% - So far, no storm has caused either 1 billion PHP in damage, or 300 fatalities. As much as I disagree with PAGASA's arbitrary retirement standards (Amang was a respectable storm for them, and even a minor storm like Betty deserves a bit better than 0%), there's nothing I can do to change them. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:53, April 21, 2015 (UTC) Eh...I'm bored. Been a while since I've been on, but until EPac and ATL start up in two weeks and a month, respectively, might as well post my calls thus far: JMA names: *Mekkhala - 5% - Damage and deaths were very minimal, even by their standards. *Higos - 0% - Strongest February typhoon in 45 years, but it was still well away from land. *Bavi - 1% - Was just an afternoon rainshower for parts of micronesia; damage, if any, was less than minimal. *Maysak - 70% - It fortunately wasn't as bad as it could've been for the Philippines, but parts of Micronesia were slammed by this typhoon, and it was regarded as the worst ever in some areas. It has a pretty good shot of retirement based on what happened there alone. On top of all this, Maysak was also the strongest storm to exist in the West Pacific before April, and the 3rd earliest WPac category 5, after Ophelia in January 1958 and Mitang in March 2002. *Haishenot put this one on here (end pun). *Noul - ?? - Still active. PAGASA names: *Nothing meets their retirement criteria (1 billion PHP damage/300 deaths) thus far. There you go. Ryan1000 20:44, May 4, 2015 (UTC)